Agenda item

(Planning Portfolio Holder) To consider the attached report (C-060-2013/14).

(1)        That the updated population forecasting report from Edge Analytics be noted, and accepted into the Local Plan Evidence Base;

(2)        That the updated Strategic Housing Market Assessment be noted, subject to the proviso that it would need to be further revised in light of the population forecasting report from Edge Analytics referred to above.

The Planning Portfolio Holder presented a report about accepting two key pieces of technical work into the Local Plan Evidence base.

The Portfolio Holder reported that the first document was the updated population forecasting work produced by Edge Analytics. This work had been produced for the Epping Forest District alone, using the most up to date information available, including the newly released 2011 census information and new household formation rates. The new population projections predicted a lower level of trend population growth than had previously been suggested by the Government’s official 2010 population projections, released in 2012.

The Portfolio Holder stated that the second document was an updated Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), which considered the housing market, particularly in terms of affordability, current housing need, property prices and future need. The updated SHMA was already in the public domain by virtue of having been published by the other authorities which were part of the Housing Market Assessment group: namely Harlow, East Hertfordshire and Uttlesford District Councils.

The Portfolio Holder highlighted that the updated SHMA had used the official 2010 population projections and would require further review following the work referred to above by Edge Analytics. The other three authorities within the Housing Market Assessment Group were not necessarily unhappy with the official population projections as they related to their areas, and therefore the Council intended to seek a review of the SHMA which would differ only in the population projections applied to the Epping Forest District. However, the SHMA as presented was still useful as it provided useful trend information on the proportions and types of homes and affordability levels required within the District, even though the final numbers required further revision.

The Portfolio Holder concluded that both documents were key pieces of technical work to inform the Local Plan, and were required to assess the future housing need within the District and demonstrate the soundness of the Plan at the Examination in Public.

A number of the Members present expressed grave concerns about accepting the updated Strategic Housing Market Assessment into the Local Plan Evidence Base as it required further revision following the updated population forecasting work performed by Edge Analytics. It was emphasised that Planning Inspectors took note of the documents that had been accepted into the Local Plan Evidence Base, and that if the SHMA was accepted into the Evidence Base then it would carry weight at Planning Appeals in the future. The population figures were known to be wrong, and it was felt that the Council was not in a position to accept the figures, therefore the SHMA as it currently existed should be noted but not accepted into the Local Plan Evidence Base.

The interim Assistant Director of Planning & Economic Development (Policy) commented that the SHMA had already been published by the other three authorities in the Housing Market Assessment Group, and therefore it was already in the public domain. This Council had completed some further work on population forecasting within the District and hence some of the figures within the SHMA required further updating. The population forecasting work was a counterbalance to the SHMA, and the Council would not be able to use the trend information within the SHMA if it was not accepted within the Evidence Base. It was pointed out that a SHMA regularly required updating.

The Portfolio Holder acknowledged the comments made by Members, but emphasised that the SHMA had already been placed in the public domain by Harlow, Uttlesford and East Hertfordshire District Councils and that the recommendations before the Cabinet had been very carefully worded as it was known that the SHMA required revising following the population forecasting report produced by Edge Analytics.

The Cabinet considered the comments of other Members very carefully, and agreed to revise the second and third recommendations in the report accordingly. The Cabinet agreed to note the revised Strategic Housing Market Assessment, but not to accept it into the Local Plan Evidence Base at the current time as it required further revision following the population forecasting report produced by Edge Analytics.

Decision:

(1)        That the updated population forecasting report from Edge Analytics be noted, and accepted into the Local Plan Evidence Base;

(2)        That the updated Strategic Housing Market Assessment be noted, subject to the proviso that it would need to be further revised in light of the population forecasting report from Edge Analytics referred to above.

Reasons for Decision:

Adopting these two key pieces of technical work into the Local Plan Evidence Base would enable the Council to work towards a sound new Local Plan, based upon robust information. This in turn would mean that the new Local Plan would be far more likely to be accepted at the Examination in Public by the independent Inspector.

As the Strategic Housing Market Assessment required further revision following the population forecasting report produced by Edge Analytics, it was not accepted into the Local Plan Evidence Base at the current time.

Other Options Considered and Rejected:

To not adopt either, or both, documents into the Local Plan Evidence Base. However, if the new Local Plan was prepared without these two key pieces of technical work then it would be lacking robust evidence, and not be prepared in accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework and other guidance.

To adopt the Strategic Housing Market Assessment into the Local Plan Evidence Base at the current time, however it was known to require further revision with the figures from the population forecasting report produced by Edge Analytics and could be considered as evidence by an Inspector at a planning appeal if it was accepted into the Evidence Base at the current time.